Republicans on Iran

Just a few thoughts on the Iranian nuclear “crisis” that has taken over the American political scene during the Republican primaries and has dominated Western media for some time.  Republicans trying to get elected can and will say anything to get into the White House.  Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum have all been actively “beating the drums of war”, as they claim Obama has a weak foreign policy towards Iran.  They all would support a war, because Iran supposedly poses a threat to the entire region.  They would also support being involved in that war both covertly and militarily alongside Israel.  There has been no talk of diplomacy or the prospect of an agreement.  According to these three, one of which may be President one day (Romney), supporting Israel against Iran comes before the national security of the United States.  If anti-Americanism is rampant now, imagine after a united pre-emptive attack on Iran.  In my opinion it would start WW3 and I do not say that lightly.  Russia, China, and the United States would be at odds.  The populations of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Iran would all be supportive of a war.  It would be a war with global impact, and the economic consequences would be dire.  However that does not matter now since all that matters is getting elected.  Ron Paul is the only one who has spoken sensibly about the issue.  To paraphrase his statements in a recent debate, he said we (Americans) talked to the Soviets during the Cold War and they had thousands of nukes.   Iran, he said, does not even have one and we are talking about going to war. 

One point that has not been brought up is what Iran would do with a nuclear weapon.  Some of the most ignorant suggestions have been that they would nuke Tel Aviv or another city in Israel.  Now, I do not condone nuclear proliferation in any sense.  I very strongly believe that weapons in fragile countries like Pakistan can get into the hands of terrorist groups looking to use or sell the technology.  I also believe that a leader would be foolish enough one day to use one.  As a prof of mine recently put it, “nuclear deterrence only has to work until the sun burns out”.  The statement is powerful as it reveals the ridiculous nature of an eternal strategy of deterrence while also acknowledging the possibility the strategy might fail.  In regards to Iran, there would be no possible way Tehran would ever nuke Israel.  If anyone knows the geography of the area, Israel and the Palestinian territories are incredibly dense and intertwined with each other.  A nuclear attack on Israel would not only lead Iran to immediate destruction at the hands of the United States and Israel.  It would also lead to the death of Palestinians and the destruction of Palestinian land.  It is as if you want to save your friends from the Business building at Laurier and to do so you nuke the Arts building.  It just does not add up.  Iran does not like Israel, that much is clear.  It also supports the creation of a Palestinian state.  But under no circumstance is it going to develop a nuclear weapon and send it towards Tel Aviv.